The British Herpetological Society

The Herpetological Journal is the Society's prestigious quarterly scientific journal. Articles are listed in Biological Abstracts, Current Awareness in Biological Sciences,Current Contents, Science Citation Index, and Zoological Record.

 ISSN 0268-0130

2020 Impact Factor for the Herpetological Journal is 0.862


pdf 02. Predicted impact of climate change on the distribution of the Critically Endangered golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca) in Madagascar

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33256/32.1.513

pp. 5-13

Authors: Wayne M. Edwards, Michael J. Bungard, Eddie F Rakotondrasoa, Pierre Razafindraibe, Raphali R Andriantsimanarilafy, Julie H Razafimanahaka, & Richard A. Griffiths

Abstract: The impact of climate change on Malagasy amphibians remains poorly understood. Equally, deforestation, fragmentation, and lack of connectivity between forest patches may leave vulnerable species isolated in habitat that no longer suits their environmental or biological requirements. We assess the predicted impact of climate change by 2085 on the potential distribution of a Critically Endangered frog species, the golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca), that is confined to a small area of the central rainforest of Madagascar. We identify potential population distributions and climatically stable areas. Results suggest a potential south-eastwardly shift away from the current range and a decrease in suitable habitat from 2110 km2 under current climate to between 112 km2 – 138 km2 by the year 2085 – less than 7 % of currently available suitable habitat. Results also indicate that the amount of golden mantella habitat falling within protected areas decreases by 86 % over the same period. We recommend research to ascertain future viability and the feasibility of expanding protection to newly identified potential sites. This information can then be used in future conservation actions such as habitat restoration, translocations, re-introductions or the siting of further wildlife corridors or protected areas.

Keywords: Conservation, SDM, amphibian, montane, rainforest, protected area

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IMPORTANT NOTE - JUNE 2020

Please note that as from Volume 31 Number 1 (January 2021) on, the Herpetological Journal will be available as an online publication only - the last print edition will be Volume 30 Number 4.   

Aligning with this change, it is now no longer possible to purchase a subscription that includes a print copy of the HJ.  All members who have existing HJ print subscriptions that remain active as at end June 2020 will receive the full four 2020 print editions.  New subscribers or renewals after this time will only have option to subscribe to the online only subscription package.  Subscription pricing has been amended to reflect the content changes.